GOLDILOCKS

"If you don't know where you are going, every road will get you nowhere." - Henry Kissinger

The holiday season is in full swing and U.S. shoppers spent $10.3 billion online on Saturday and Sunday - a 7.7% increase from 2022 and consumers spent $9.8 billion on Black Friday - a 7.5% jump from 2022 levels. Shoppers are expected to have spent between $12 - 12.4 billion online on Cyber Monday, making it the biggest U.S. online shopping day of all time.

The trend of consumers using “buy now and pay later” options is also set to reach an all-time high contributing $782 million to Monday’s sales - a 19% surge from last year (Adobe data). Post Thanksgiving Sales for retailers were up, travel is up, and oil prices are down from their peak which should help reduce gasoline costs through the holidays.

It seems as though the Goldilocks scenario for the economy is still possible as we see growth holding up even after the most aggressive cycle of Fed interest-rate increases in a generation....although the long lag effects are yet to register. (Barrons)